The ABS Wage Price Index for Q1 2026 shows wages grew 3.4% over the year. Sounds reasonable — until you compare it to the CPI, which ran at 3.8% over the same period. That's another quarter of real wage decline.

Since the March 2022 peak in real wages, the cumulative loss is now around 4.2% for the average full-time worker. On a median salary of $90,000, that's roughly $3,780 in purchasing power gone — permanently, unless wages accelerate significantly.

The government keeps pointing to nominal wage growth as evidence of success. But nominal wages mean nothing if prices are rising faster. What's your experience been? Has your pay kept up?

Teacher here in western Sydney. Our enterprise agreement gave us 3% last year. CPI was 4.1% at the time. So we went backwards again. This is the third consecutive year our real pay has declined.

The government talks about "record wage growth" but never mentions the inflation context. It's deliberately misleading. My grocery bill is up 28% since 2022. My mortgage repayments are up 60%. A 3% pay rise doesn't touch the sides.

From the employer side: I've been giving my staff 4–5% rises each year because I can't afford to lose them. But that means my own draw has stayed flat while my costs — power, insurance, supplies — have all gone up 15–25%.

The squeeze is happening at both ends. Workers aren't keeping up with inflation. Employers are absorbing cost increases that aren't reflected in prices because customers can't afford more either. Something has to give.

Worth noting that the real wage decline is not uniform. High-income earners have largely kept pace — their wages tend to be more flexible and tied to performance. The hit has fallen disproportionately on middle and lower-income workers in award-dependent industries.

The Fair Work Commission's minimum wage decision this year was 3.75% — below the CPI at the time of the decision. So even the safety net went backwards in real terms.

My daughter is a registered nurse. She got a 4% rise. Her rent went up 18% at renewal. She's now considering moving back home at 31. This is not a success story.

The government keeps saying the economy is strong. Strong for whom? Not for people trying to rent, buy food, or pay their energy bills.

For context: Australia's real wage decline since 2022 is among the steepest in the OECD. The UK, Canada, and New Zealand have all seen similar patterns, but our decline started earlier and has been more persistent.

The RBA's own modelling suggests real wages won't return to 2022 levels until late 2027 at the earliest — and that assumes inflation continues to moderate. If energy prices spike again, that timeline blows out.